The most popular way to bet on football betting is with the point spread. The total is a distant second. Because people prefer to see games as winners and losers, totals are not as appealing to casual football betting bettors. However, in many cases, totals may offer more value than sides. You should definitely look into totals if you’re a good gambler who is willing to do some research and try different strategies.
Here are three things you should consider when handicapping football betting for the coming season.
Public Tendency
Unsophisticated football betting gamblers are predictable. They will tend to back the under and the favorite. More sophisticated sports bettors will have an advantage by being aware of this tendency and adapting accordingly. This is not as easy as counting your money and playing the under. Sometimes a high total can be แทงบอลออนไลน์. In these cases, oddsmakers cannot afford to raise the totals or risk being under-informed. It is important to know what games are going to be most popular, which games they will be betting on and how often. The Patriots are playing the Colts, which has two very well-known teams and two highly respected, successful quarterbacks. Public betting will be high in volume, and the over will be a lot of action. You can expect that the total will be higher than in ideal situations. In such a situation, you could consider the under as value. The over is not likely to have been adjusted for a Tuesday game between Troy and Louisiana Tech. If you’re looking at games where the public is heavily involved, there are three options. You can either assume that oddsmakers haven’t overcompensated and still take over the over or you can choose to take the under. The under has real value because of the tendency to go low and the inflated total. Or you can decline to take part in the game due to the unattractive total. For successful football betting gamblers, the third option is more important than any of the others. You can’t lose money with bets that you don’t win.
Set Your Desired Range
When betting a total, you must ensure that your edge is substantial and that it is appropriate for the game. For example, in the NFL, it is not unusual to see a total of 35-37 when two teams with weak offenses are facing off. If your prediction of the outcome is correct and you are able to predict the score, you may be willing to place the bet. Your score is only about 10% off the total, which is significant. Two explosive offenses in college football betting can be facing a total of 65-67, or higher in certain cases. A difference of 3 points between your prediction and the actual total is unlikely to be worth much. This is because these teams are capable of scoring three points in their sleep. If your perceived advantage over the posted total is more than a touchdown, you may not be able to place a wager in such a situation. This boils down to one thing: if you can see that you are getting the most out of your handicapping, it is not worth placing a bet. The circumstances of each game will determine if you are.
Total Margin
The concept of total margin is very important when playing football betting. Total margin is the season-long calculation of how often a team exceeds or falls below the total over the course of a season. The total margin for a game can be calculated by adding the combined scores of both teams to the oddsmakers and subtracting the posted total. This is the total margin. If the final score of a game was 25-17, and the total was 35, then the total margin for all teams involved in that game would be +6. You can add up all the margins from individual games to get the average. This is a powerful พนันบอลออนไลน์. A team with total margins of +6, +4, +11, -7, or 0 would have a total margin of +3.5 for the entire season. Because they score more points than the total, a football betting team with a positive total margin will consistently exceed the total. This is why it is so valuable. You can assess a team’s performance by looking at their total margin. This will allow you to determine if they are likely to improve. The highest season total margin for a team was +8.6 in 1993, while the lowest was -7.4. It is not very common for a team to finish a season with a margin greater than +4 or lower that -4. If you look at the team’s total margin after eight games and see that it is +13, you can almost be certain that their performance isn’t sustainable. They will likely be under some totals to bring that margin down to a sustainable level. This doesn’t necessarily mean you should bet on them to win the under, but it does indicate that they are more likely to lose the next game. This is especially true because the more a team goes over or under the total, the more media will write about it and the more people will bet they will continue doing it. It’s a great moment to be contrarian. The 2007-08 Patriots, the undefeated team in the regular season, is a great example. They were obviously very well-known and scored amazing. They had over-run the total of 10 times in 12 games, with a +7.2 margin. They were over the total on average by more than one touchdown per game, which is likely to prove too much. To bring the total margin down to +4.2, they went below it in three of their subsequent games. football betting bettors who knew the situation regarding the total margins were ready to cash in on the late-season downward adjustment.